Draghi Speaks and the Euro Sinks

September 3, 2015European Unionby Marc Chandler

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The ECB succeeds in driving the euro lower.

The ECB is clearly the driver of the day, spurring a quick drubbing of the euro, pressing bond yields lower, and giving a fillip to equities.  The lower US yields and unwind of long euro cross-positions pushed the greenback below JPY120, though it has resurfaced above there.  There is scope for the dollar to rise back toward JPY120.50-70. 

Meanwhile, despite a larger build in US crude oil stocks than expected and Obama seemingly securing Senate support for the agreement with Iran, oil prices have rebound by around 3%.  This coupled with news that Canada's July trade deficit was half the size that consensus forecast, has sparked a Canadian dollar rally.  After approaching CAD1.33 earlier, the US dollar fell below CAD1.3150, where you will find the 20-day moving average.  A break of CAD1.3120 could spark another big figure decline (toward CAD1.30).  Canada, like the US, reports the latest employment figures tomorrow. 

The US July trade deficit was largely in line with expectations, just below $42 bln.  It is the smallest deficit since February, though the April-June deficits revised slightly larger.  This may offset the some impact of the stronger inventory and consumption data for revisions of Q2 GDP.  Nevertheless, the smaller July deficit, which in real terms was $56.2 bln down from $59 bln in June, may prompt a small upward revision in the nowcasting of Q3 GDP.   US non-manufacturing ISM was better than expected at 59.0 compared with consensus of 58.2.  It was a little below the 60.3.

Imports fell 1.1% or $2.5 bln.  This was the result of two sectors.  Pharmaceutical imports fell by $1.47 bln.  They are volatile, and this is likely simply noise.  Cell phone imports fell by $1.25 and this relates to the anticipation of a new product cycle. 

Exports rose 0.4% to $188.5 bln.  This is off form the record high set last October just below $198 bln last October.  While it is popular to attribute this decline to the strength of the dollar, slower world-demand may offer a more robust explanation.   

Greece's financial situation is improving on the margins, and it appears that the ECB has reduced the ELA ceiling again.  Reports indicate that ELA was cut by 600 mln euros after a 700 mln euro cut previously.  The sense of urgency has diminished, and no revisit of the ELA will likely occur until the September 16.  

Despite sterling's gains against the euro, it is still lower against the US dollar. It is the eighth consecutive losing session.  Its fall has been uninterrupted since August 24.  It has fallen 3.7% after peaking then near $1.5820.  The $1.5200 area offers the next technical support area.  The lower Bollinger band is near $1.5235 today.

Other Developments that Shouldn't be Lost in Focus on ECB is republished with permission from Marc to Market

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